How to Read a TAF Aviation Forecast

A TAF is an aviation forecast for the terminal area around an airport. METARs report what is happening now. TAFs help you understand what forecasters expect during a future period.

TAFs look intimidating because they are compressed. Read them in chunks and they become much easier. If the current-observation side is still new, review how to read a METAR first. For a side-by-side practice workflow, use how to read METAR and TAF reports.

Use this simplified example:

TAF KPHX 190747Z 1908/2012 10004KT P6SM SKC FM192000 VRB03KT P6SM SKC

Report Type and Airport

TAF tells you the product is a Terminal Aerodrome Forecast. KPHX is the airport identifier.

Always confirm the airport. Nearby airports can have very different ceilings, visibility, wind, and thunderstorm risk.

Issue Time

190747Z means the forecast was issued on the 19th day of the month at 0747 Zulu time.

Zulu time is UTC. Aviation weather products use it so pilots and dispatchers are not constantly converting between local time zones.

Valid Period

1908/2012 means the forecast is valid from the 19th at 0800Z until the 20th at 1200Z.

Before using a TAF, make sure your planned departure and arrival times fall inside the valid period.

Wind

10004KT means wind from 100 degrees true at 4 knots. VRB03KT means variable wind at 3 knots.

If gusts are expected, you may see a group like 22015G25KT, meaning wind from 220 at 15 knots gusting 25.

Wind affects runway selection, crosswind component, groundspeed, fuel planning, and comfort.

Visibility

P6SM means visibility greater than six statute miles. Lower visibility may appear as a number and SM, such as 3SM.

Visibility is one of the first items VFR pilots should check. A forecast can be legal but still unwise for a low-time pilot if haze, mist, or precipitation reduces margin. Compare the forecast to your weather minimums, not just the legal minimums.

Clouds and Weather

SKC means sky clear. Cloud groups work similarly to METARs:

• FEW: few.
• SCT: scattered.
• BKN: broken.
• OVC: overcast.

Cloud heights are reported in hundreds of feet. BKN020 means broken clouds at 2,000 feet above the airport.

Weather codes may include rain, snow, mist, fog, haze, thunderstorms, and freezing precipitation. Learn the common codes and look up uncommon ones.

FM Groups

FM means “from.” It starts a new forecast period at a specific time.

For example, FM192000 means from the 19th day at 2000Z, the forecast changes to the conditions that follow. An FM group replaces the prior prevailing conditions.

TEMPO Groups

TEMPO means temporary conditions expected for a limited time during the stated period. This can matter a lot.

If the prevailing forecast looks VFR but a TEMPO group shows low visibility, thunderstorms, or low ceilings during your arrival window, plan for that risk.

PROB Groups

Probability groups describe a lower-probability forecast event. In U.S. National Weather Service TAFs, PROB30 is the probability group pilots most commonly need to recognize. Do not ignore it just because the event is not guaranteed.

For example, a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms during your arrival window deserves respect. In aviation, low-probability events can still be high-consequence events.

How to Use a TAF

Decode the TAF, then ask practical questions:

• Will the weather be legal for my flight rules?
• Will it be within my personal minimums?
• Are conditions improving or worsening?
• What is forecast at my alternate?
• What if the TEMPO or PROB group happens?
• Do winds affect runway choice or fuel?

TAFs are forecasts, not promises. Use them with METARs, radar, satellite, PIREPs, winds aloft, and a full weather briefing to build a safer plan. For route-level use, connect the forecast to your cross-country flight planning process.

Official References

• FAA AIM 7-1 METAR/TAF key
• FAA Aviation Weather Handbook
• FAA METAR/TAF key card
• Aviation Weather Center
• FAA Pilot's Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge